Swing State

Politics and Humor…but I repeat myself

McCain leads early GOP primary polls

Check out some of this new poll from the American Research Group info from over at The Fix.   

One of the most interested things about this article is the way that the undecided voters are shaping up.  According to the article the number of uncommitted voters in early primary states like Iowa, South Carolina, and New Hampshire is unusually low considering that the election is still more than a year away. 

In Iowa only 14 percent of those polled have yet to commit to a candidate.  In New Hampshire the number of uncommitted voters is even smaller, coming in at around 5 percent of those polled. 

While those numbers are still big enough to influence that standing of the candidates, I find it very interesting to see that they are not a bit higher this early on. 

Okay, so what about the numbers…. 

In Iowa and Nevada former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is holding on to a tight lead, with Senator McCain nipping at his heels and former Speaker Newt Gingrich in third.  The article does point out that “[g]iven Giuliani’s liberal positions on social issues…it seems unlikely that he will retain his number one spot in Iowa as that state’s caucuses tend to be dominated by socially conservative voters.”

The numbers in South Carolina and New Hampshire continue to show McCain leading the pack followed by Giuliani and Gingrich.

As this poll surfaces on the same day that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney announced the formation of his exploratory committee, the campaign must be realizing that they have a lot of ground to make up if they want to be considered a real contender.  Romney failed to garner 10 percent of the vote in New Hampshire, and as the article points out, that “may be the result of bleed-over from the Boston media market,” which increased his name recognition. 

In states like Iowa and South Carolina, where Romney has spent a great deal of effort putting together top notch political teams, he is only generating support from between 5 and 6 percent of those polled.

It seems as though the early numbers are showing a two way race between McCain and Giuliani, and with Giuliani’s recent campaign blunders, the upcoming difficulties he will have defending his conservative credentials to Republican Primary voters, and McCain’s organizational superiority, Swing State gives the edge to McCain early on

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January 4, 2007 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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